Midsummer has just passed and we are all getting ready to take a few days off to spend more time with our family and friends, visit the beach, or have some herring for lunch. Before you do, I would like to share my reflections on the first six months of 2024.
We see that while interest rates and financing costs have started to level lower on the back of the ECB’s first rate cut in June 2024, the most dramatic repricing is balancing out in the Nordic real estate market. The continued cooling of core inflation and stabilization of interest rates has given the real estate market confidence about the current valuations, and we expect the market to start picking up towards the end of the year.
I will now look into each of the countries in the Nordics.
Denmark
The setback in commercial real estate investment activity that the market saw in 2023, was also recorded in the first half of 2024. Provided property yields start showing signs of stabilizing, we could expect the commercial real estate investment activity to begin picking up towards the year-end. However, an uncertain macro environment and elevated interest rates will continue to weigh on investor and lender sentiment.
The divergence in performance across property types observed in the first half of 2024, is likely to persist in the remainder of the year. Multifamily and industrial assets have been most favored by investors. Both property types have relatively strong fundamentals (demand, occupancy, rent growth, etc.) and long-term tailwinds that bolster their attractiveness.
The largest transaction in the first half of 2024 was Velkomn/Matter Real Estate's entry into the Danish market, with the acquisition of a single-family residential portfolio consisting of eight properties located on Zealand and in the Triangle Region in Jutland. The Properties were all recently developed by Birch Ejendomme and Aermont Capital, and comprise a total area of approx. 57,000 sq m (667 terraced houses). This transaction is groundbreaking in the current market, as
1) it is the largest transaction so far in 2024,
2) the buyer is international, and
3) it is a nationwide portfolio with no exposure in Copenhagen.
CBRE acted on behalf of the seller.
Back in February, Pictet and Brunswick divested Lindu Ejendomme's industrial portfolio in Copenhagen to entities owned by Blackstone-managed funds. The deal included 14 Greater Copenhagen light industrial/warehouse properties with a total GLA of approx. 84,000 sqm, and was the largest Industrial & Logistics deal in the first half of 2024. CBRE acted as advisor for the buyer.
CBRE was also involved in the largest Office transaction in the first half of 2024- CapMan Social Real Estate (CMSRE) acquisition of a historical office and educational property, consisting of 19,300 sqm. The property is fully let out to its’ sole tenant the Copenhagen Business School (CBS) and has been part of the school’s campus area since 2005. CBS is one of the largest business schools in Europe with more than 22,000 students and 1,500 employees.
Finally, CBRE has advised Abrdn regarding the sale of a prime located retail and office property located at ‘Strøget’ – Copenhagen’s pedestrian street. The property is sold to Alma Property Partners and Kristensen Properties and is the largest Retail transaction in the first half of 2024.
Finland
Most dramatic repricing is over with a slow turn to better sentiment in the Finnish market.
The Finnish investment market did not see a full recovery yet in the first half of 2024. Investment volumes increased 7% year-over-year to €488 million in the first quarter of 2024. Until mid-June, the Finnish investment market has recorded roughly €1 billion in investment volume year-to-date, and we expect the market to beat the previous year’s first-half numbers (€1.2 billion). On a positive note, the financing market has opened during the first months of 2024, and there have been several successful financing and restructuring activities during the first half of 2024. The residential sector has attracted the largest share of total investment (>30%) followed by retail and I&L (ca. 20%).
The largest transactions year-to-date in 2024 have been KEVA’s acquisition of a medical centre development from Hartela in Turku in March and Barings’ purchase of Berner's logistics property in Vantaa in February. In the last few weeks, the Finnish residential investment market has seen several completed transactions, giving the wider investment market more confidence into the current pricing environment. Sirius Capital Partners purchased a prime residential portfolio for €45 million from eQ in April and Catella European Residential Fund acquired four residential properties from the same seller in May.
The prime yields are starting to stabilize at current levels, especially in the residential and logistics sectors. Prime residential yield is standing at 4.50% and prime logistics yield at 5.50% in June, while prime office and social infrastructure yields are at 5.25% and 5.50%, respectively.
Norway
Following the challenging year of 2023, positive advancements are being observed in the Norwegian commercial real estate investment sector, with multiple significant transactions occurring within the first half of 2024. The initial quarter demonstrated an impressive investment volume of NOK 22.9 billion, marking a 57% surge on a year-over-year basis. The office market has emerged as the primary driver of investment activities, contributing NOK 13.4 billion, which constitutes 58.5% of the total investment volume. I&L assets maintain their appeal among investors, representing 26.9% of the investment volume, equating to NOK 6.2 billion in the first quarter.
The first half of the year has witnessed an increased availability of capital, as financial institutions have demonstrated an increased willingness to provide loans, and the real estate bond market experiences heightened activity. Bank margins appear to have reached a peak and are now on a downward trajectory, while Norwegian real estate bond credit spreads have significantly reduced since the preceding autumn.
The most substantial transaction of 2024 to date has been E.C. Dahls Eiendom's procurement of Entra's office portfolio in Trondheim, valued at NOK 6.45 billion. This portfolio comprises 13 properties, totaling approximately 187,000 sqm. Several Industrial & Logistics transactions exceeding NOK 1 billion have also been finalized, with Nrep's acquisition of 49% of the Wilog logistics portfolio being particularly notable.
After the swift expansion in recent years, prime yields have begun to stabilize. Prime office yield currently stands at 4.90%, and prime logistics yield at 5.75%. Despite a steady reduction, CPI inflation remains above the target of 2%. While Riksbanken and ECB have initiated policy rate cuts, the timing for similar actions from the Norwegian central bank remains uncertain. However, any positive developments regarding interest rates could potentially stimulate further growth in investment volumes in the latter half of the year.
Sweden
The Swedish CRE investment market is picking up speed in 2024, although from an unusually low activity in 2023. Total transaction volume in early June is SEK 38.4 billion, only 5 billion short from the first half of the total in 2023 and with the seasonal ketchup effect of Q2 end remaining. The highest activity so far is in the Industrial &Logistics (34%), Office (22%), and Residential (20%) sectors.
The Central Bank in Sweden (Riksbank) made the first interest rate cut in May to 3.75%, which marked the shift into a more favorable macro-economic environment for CRE investments ahead. More investors are becoming positive and we are noticing a rising interest in the market, even though processes tend to last longer. The yield softening may remain for secondary locations and assets as prime assets are moving into a compressing trend again due to strong occupier demand. We are noticing a positive shift where listed real estate companies have been open to acquisition and cross-border deals have decreased to 16% in the first half of 2024 as domestic investors so far dominate the deals made.
Office leasing volumes in Stockholm rolling 12 months have come down from a record 700,000 sqm in early 2023 to 400,000 sqm with 500-1,000 sqm spaces being the most popular YTD 2024. Active occupiers this year are mainly finance, public & non-profit together with transportation and infrastructure. The logistics vacancy rate has increased to 5% on a national level in Q1 2024 due to a high rate of speculative development and a lower than usual leasing activity, Gothenburg is less affected than Stockholm.
The retail market is expected to have a boost as household disposable income moves into a positive development from the summer of 2024. Discounts, luxury goods, and groceries will likely continue to perform well and the vacancy in central Stockholm high street locations is currently down to 0% with a positive rental development.
Sweden´s largest deal in 2024 so far is the Catena investment of two newly developed logistics assets in Landskrona, Skåne, comprising 180,000 sqm at SEK 2.4bn from DSV in May. The deal is a sale and lease back. The most substantial office deal is the Atrium Ljungberg divestment of two assets in Sundbyberg, Stockholm, for SEK 2.1bn to the local institutional investor Alecta. The assets together comprise almost 36,800sqm and have a vacancy of 7% which is expected to increase with more of the current tenants leaving. You might have read in the news recently about the CBRE IM divestment of the retail asset Bromma Blocks to Svenska Handelsfastigheter. The big box asset comprises of around 57,500 sqm with a purchase price of almost SEK 1.2bn.
Based in Sweden but a Nordic project is when CBRE advised Castlelake on tailored financing solutions for joint venture agreements with SBB and loan financing of a total MEUR 950 (SEK 10.9 billion) to SBB Infrastructure. The loans were used by SBB Infrastructure to acquire properties from SBB and refinance debt to SBB. The loans were secured by a portfolio of social infrastructure and purpose-built care assets across Sweden as well as additional collateral in Finland.
CBRE brought the full depth and breadth of services from its Nordic platform to Castlelake in a secure and strictly confidential process involving professionals from Capital Markets, Real Estate Investment Banking, Valuation and Sustainability. CBRE delivered market intelligence with trusted relationships and transaction insights, strategic investment banking knowledge and M&A advice, accurate valuation, and sustainability reporting, as well as structured execution expertise.
We wish you a great summer!
Now, I hope and wish that you all, our customers, employees, and partners, can enjoy a beautiful summer filled with great weather and even better memories. Whether you're planning a vacation, hosting a summer BBQ, or simply savoring the longer daylight hours, I hope you're able to find pockets of time to relax and rejuvenate.
Please don't hesitate to reach out if there is anything we can do to support you and your business during this season. We're here for you and look forward to picking up where we left off when you're back in the swing of things.
Wishing you a wonderful summer!
Sincerely,
//Colin
